lobal tourism recovery quickens

根据联合国世界旅游组织新发布的《世界旅游晴雨表》，全球旅游业正在持续以强劲速度复苏。

Worldwide tourism continues to recover at a strong pace, according to the newly released UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

2022年第一季度，全球旅游目的地的国际入境人数几乎是2021年同期的三倍，其中欧洲引领整个行业的反弹。

Globally, destinations welcomed almost three times as many international arrivals in the first quarter of 2022 as in the same period of 2021, with Europe leading the sector’s rebound.

根据《世界旅游晴雨表》数字，全球旅游业在2022年1月至3月同比增长182%，全球旅游目的地迎来了约1.17亿名国际游客，而这一数字在2021年第一季度仅为 4100万。

According to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism saw a 182% year-on-year increase in January-March 2022, with destinations worldwide welcoming an estimated 117 million international arrivals compared to just 41 million in Q1 2021.

在前三个月新增的7600万名国际游客中，有4700万是在3月份增加的，表明复苏步伐正在加快。

Of the extra 76 million international arrivals for the first three months, about 47 million were recorded in March, showing that the recovery is gathering pace.

欧美引领行业复苏

Europe and Americas lead the recovery

世界旅游组织的数据显示，2022年第一季度，欧洲接待的国际游客人数（280%）几乎是2021年第一季度的四倍，这一趋势来自欧洲范围内强劲需求的推动。在美洲，入境人数与去年同期相比增加了一倍多（117%）。然而，欧洲和美洲的入境人数仍分别比2019年的水平下降了43%和46%。

UNWTO data shows that during the first quarter of 2022, Europe welcomed almost four times as many international arrivals (280%) as in Q1 of 2021, with results driven by strong intra-regional demand. In the Americas, arrivals more than doubled (117%) in the same three months. However, arrivals in Europe and the Americas were still -43% and -46% below 2019 levels respectively.

与2021年相比，中东（132%）和非洲（96%）在 2022 年第一季度也出现了强势增长，但入境人数仍分别比2019年下降59%和61%。亚太地区比2021年增长了64%，但由于亚太地区内多个目的地仍禁止非必要旅行，因此比2019年同期减少93%。

The Middle East (132%) and Africa (96%) also saw strong growth in Q1 2022 compared to 2021, but arrivals remained -59% and -61% below 2019 levels respectively. Asia and the Pacific recorded a 64% increase over 2021 but again, levels were -93% below 2019 numbers as several destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.

按区域划分，加勒比海区及欧洲南地中海地区继续呈现最快的复苏速度。在这两个区域，入境人数都恢复到了2019年近75%的水平，一些目的地达到甚至超过了疫情前水平。

By subregion, the Caribbean and Southern Mediterranean Europe continue to show the fastest rates of recovery. In both, arrivals recovered to nearly 75% of 2019 levels, with some destinations reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

旅游目的地逐步开放

Destinations opening up

尽管全球旅游业仍比2019年水平降低61%，但随着更多目的地放松或解除旅行限制，以及被压抑的需求得到释放，预计行业将在2022年继续逐步复苏。截至6月2日，45个旅游目的地（其中31个在欧洲）解除了任何与疫情相关的入境限制。在亚洲，越来越多的目的地也开始放宽旅行限制。

Although international tourism remains -61% below 2019 levels, the gradual recovery is expected to continue throughout 2022, as more destinations ease or lift travel restrictions and pent-up demand is unleashed. As of 2 June, 45 destinations (of which 31 are in Europe) had no COVID-19 related restrictions in place. In Asia, an increasing number of destinations have started to ease those restrictions.

世界旅游组织表示，尽管前景积极，但充满挑战的经济环境以及俄乌冲突，对国际旅游业的持续复苏构成了下行风险。

Despite these positive prospects, a challenging economic environment coupled with the military offensive of the Russian Federation in Ukraine pose a downside risk to the ongoing recovery of international tourism, UNWTO said.

该组织评论道：“到目前为止，俄乌冲突扰乱了东欧旅行市场，但对于全球旅游业复苏的直接影响有限。然而，这场冲突正在全球范围内产生重大的经济影响，加剧了本已居高不下的油价和整体通胀，并扰乱了国际供应链，从而导致旅游业的交通和住宿成本上升。”

It commented: “The Russian offensive on Ukraine seems to have had a limited direct impact on overall results so far, although it is disrupting travel in Eastern Europe. However, the conflict is having major economic repercussions globally, exacerbating already high oil prices and overall inflation and disrupting international supply chains, which results in higher transport and accommodation costs for the tourism sector.”

未来复苏势头超出预期

Stronger than expected recovery ahead

最新的世界旅游组织信心指数明显上升。自疫情开始以来，该指数首次回到2019年的水平，这反映了全球旅游专家的乐观情绪正在上涨，这源于被压抑的强劲旅游需求，尤其是欧洲内部和美国前往欧洲的旅行。

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index showed a marked uptick. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the index returned to levels of 2019, reflecting rising optimism among tourism experts worldwide, building on strong pent-up demand, in particular intra-European travel and US travel to Europe.

根据世界旅游组织专家小组的最新调查，与2021年相比，绝大多数旅游专业人士（83%）认为2022年的前景比2021年更好，只要病毒得到控制且目的地继续放宽或取消旅行限制。然而，一些主要出境市场（主要是亚太地区）的持续关闭，以及俄乌冲突带来的不确定性，可能会延迟国际旅游业的有效复苏。

According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, an overwhelming majority of tourism professionals (83%) see better prospects for 2022 compared to 2021, as long as the virus is contained and destinations continue to ease or lift travel restrictions. However, the ongoing closure of some major outbound markets, mostly in Asia and the Pacific, as well as the uncertainty derived from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could delay the effective recovery of international tourism.

越来越多的专家（48%）目前认为，国际游客可能会在2023年恢复到2019年的水平（ 这一比例在1月份的调查中为32%）。认为要到2024年或更久才能恢复的专家比例，从一月份的64%下降到了44%。

A higher number of experts (48%) now see a potential return of international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2023 (from 32% in the January survey), while the percentage indicating this could happen in 2024 or later (44%) has diminished compared to the January survey (64%).

与此同时，截至4月底，美洲、非洲、欧洲、北大西洋和中东的国际航空运载力已达到或接近疫情前水平的80%；航运需求也在恢复。

Meanwhile by end April, international air capacity across the Americas, Africa, Europe, North Atlantic and the Middle East has reached or is close to 80% of pre-crisis levels and demand is following.

由于2022年第一季度的业绩强于预期、航班预订量显著增加以及信心指数的上升，世界旅游组织对2022年的展望进行了调整。

UNWTO has revised its outlook for 2022 due to stronger-than-expected results in the first quarter of 2022, a significant increase in flight reservations, and prospects from the UNWTO Confidence Index.

预计在2022年，国际游客人数将达到2019年水平的55%至70%，这取决于多种情况，包括目的地继续解除旅行限制的速度、俄乌战争的演变、疫情再度爆发的可能性及全球经济状况，特别是通货膨胀和能源价格。

International tourist arrivals are now expected to reach 55% to 70% of 2019 levels in 2022, depending on several circumstances including the rate at which destinations continue to lift travel restrictions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, possible new outbreaks of coronavirus and global economic conditions, particularly inflation and energy prices.

来源：穆迪达维特免税报告

Source：Moodie Davitt